Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number of Enterovirus 71, Coxsackievirus A6 and A16 in Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Singapore

Authors

  • Cindy Lim Epidemiology & Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore.
  • Lili Jiang Epidemiology & Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore.
  • Li Wei Ang Epidemiology & Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore.
  • Stefan Ma Epidemiology & Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore.
  • Lyn James Epidemiology & Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore.
  • Jeffery Cutter Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v6i1.5091

Abstract

The major enteroviruses causing nationwide epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Singapore were enterovirus 71 (EV71), coxsackievirus A6 (CA6) and A16 (CA16). A mathematical model was used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) of these enteroviruses based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each HFMD outbreak. The median R<sub>0</sub> was estimated to be 3.50 for EV71, 2.42 for CA16, and 5.04 for CA6. The enterovirus-specific R<sub>0</sub> estimates would be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics for timely implementation of disease control measures.

Author Biography

Cindy Lim, Epidemiology & Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore.

Cindy Lim obtained her Master in Biostatistics at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto. She is a biostatistician with the Communicable Diseases Analytics unit, Biostatistics and Research Branch, Epidemiology and Disease Control Division of the Ministry of Health Singapore since January 2013. Her current work pertains to statistical analyses of local data for epidemiological surveillance of communicable diseases and the associated risk factors and research.

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Published

2014-03-09

How to Cite

Lim, C., Jiang, L., Ang, L. W., Ma, S., James, L., & Cutter, J. (2014). Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number of Enterovirus 71, Coxsackievirus A6 and A16 in Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Singapore. Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v6i1.5091

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 1 (2014)

Section

Poster Presentations

License

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